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BooksThesis

Calibration and Uncertainty in Generative Systems

Amélie Roussel

PhD thesis · 224 pages · ISBN 978-0-00-100005-0 · 15 May 2026 · 10.xxxx/ctm.bk.2026.0005

Doctoral thesis on estimating and communicating uncertainty for text generation. It develops calibration methods for retrieval-augmented systems, studies how users interpret expressed confidence, and proposes evaluation protocols for uncertainty in open-ended outputs.

Read book PDF 1,780 9401 cited
PreprintsShort CommunicationNot peer reviewed

Calibrated Uncertainty in Retrieval-Augmented Generation

Amélie Roussel, Tomás Ibarra

Version 2 (updated) · 5 June 2026 · 10.xxxx/ctm.pp.2026.0001

Retrieval-augmented generation grounds answers in retrieved documents, yet models remain over-confident when the retrieved evidence is irrelevant or contradictory. We propose a lightweight confidence estimator that combines the generator's token probabilities with a retrieval-agreement score, and calibrate it with temperature scaling on a small validation set. On three question-answering datasets the estimator lowers expected calibration error from 0.19 to 0.06 and enables selective answering: abstaining on the 20% least confident questions raises accuracy from 71% to 84%. The method needs no model retraining.

Abstract PDF 2,718 9043 cited